The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has forecast a further intensification of El Niño conditions between November 2026 and January 2027, with warming expected to peak around December 2026.
According to the WMO’s Global Seasonal Climate Update for November 2026 to January 2027, multi-model forecasts indicate that El Niño conditions in the Pacific Ocean are likely to strengthen over the coming months.
The seasonal average sea surface temperature anomaly in the Niño 3.4 region is projected to reach approximately 3.8°C above normal during the three-month period, with warming expected to peak in December.
The WMO said the relatively small differences among individual forecast models indicate a high level of confidence in these projections.
Meanwhile, the positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is expected to weaken towards neutral conditions, with a seasonal average anomaly of approximately +0.3°C.
Sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Atlantic Ocean are also forecast to remain above normal, with warmer-than-average conditions expected in both the North and South Tropical Atlantic regions.
The WMO issues its Global Seasonal Climate Update every month, providing forecasts of global temperature and rainfall patterns for the following three months. The updates help countries prepare for potential climate-related impacts.
